Ethereum may post a notable recovery in the coming months, as the largest ETH holders have moved back into profit. Historically, signals like this have repeatedly coincided with the beginning of strong upward price movements.
If the previous market pattern repeats, ETH could rise to around $2,750 by June and move above $3,200 by September. The basis for this scenario is the return to profitability of the largest category of ether holders.
At the moment, Ethereum’s native token, trading near $2,151, could gain roughly 25% over the next few months. The reason is a shift in the position of the largest wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH: for the first time since early February, they are no longer sitting in an overall unrealized loss.
The Core Idea
In previous market cycles, the return of the largest ETH holders to profitability often acted as an important reversal signal. Based on historical observations, once this sign appeared, Ethereum gained an average of about 25% over three months, around 50% over six months, and as much as 300% over one year.
If this pattern plays out again, ETH could show a strong upward move in the coming months.
The Whale Indicator Suggests a Bottom May Already Be Forming
According to CryptoQuant data, the unrealized profit metric for wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has once again moved above zero. In other words, the largest Ethereum holders are no longer sitting on a collective paper loss.
On-chain analyst CW notes that in past periods, this kind of move back into profit often marked the starting point of a new uptrend. Once large investors return to profit, defensive selling pressure usually weakens. At the same time, this shift can strengthen confidence across the broader market, since investors tend to interpret whale behavior as confirmation that conditions are improving.
If history repeats itself, ETH could climb toward $2,750 by June and move above $3,200 by September.
However, this signal should not be treated as flawless. For example, in 2018, after a similar move into positive territory, Ethereum fell 17.5% within a month and eventually dropped nearly 70%. This shows that even strong on-chain indicators do not guarantee immediate upside.
An Additional On-Chain Signal Caps the Near-Term Target Around $2,640
Another indicator suggests that Ethereum is gradually recovering from a period of undervaluation.
According to Glassnode data, ETH is rebounding after reaching one of its lowest deviations from the median value. A similar pattern was seen in the second quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2025. In both cases, the market first went through a period of noticeable weakness and then recovered back above the realized price.
Ethereum is still trading below its realized price, currently at $2,353. This level is viewed as the first major recovery threshold. If ETH manages to break and hold above it, the next target could be the -0.5 sigma zone around $2,640.
At the same time, the bearish scenario remains relevant. If the market fails to reclaim the realized price, Ethereum could once again decline and retest the lower bound of the range near $1,651.
The Technical Picture Also Supports a Move Above $2,600
From a technical standpoint, ETH has already broken upward out of an ascending triangle and is now pulling back toward the former resistance line. These kinds of return moves to the breakout level are common, since markets often come back to test whether former resistance can turn into new support.
If that upper boundary holds, Ethereum may resume its advance and move toward the measured target near $2,625 or higher. This level also aligns with the broader recovery zone shown by Glassnode’s MVRV bands, which adds further support to the bullish case.
But if the retest fails, the breakout structure will weaken. In that case, the market could return to the lower support zone around $1,950–2,000.
Key ETH Levels and Signals
| Indicator | Value | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| Current ETH Price | $2,151 | The base level from which upside potential is being considered |
| Potential Target by June | $2,750 | Possible rise of around 25% if the whale signal remains valid |
| Potential Target by September | $3,200+ | A stronger scenario if the historical pattern repeats |
| Realized Price | $2,353 | The first major recovery level |
| -0.5 Sigma Level | $2,640 | The nearest on-chain target if ETH reclaims realized price |
| Technical Breakout Target | $2,625 | The target based on the ascending triangle pattern |
| Risk Zone if Weakness Returns | $1,950–2,000 | Support area if the retest fails |
| Lower Deviation Boundary | $1,651 | A deeper downside zone if selling pressure returns |
| Historical Return 3 Months After Whale Signal | ~25% | Average gain in previous cycles |
| Historical Return 6 Months After Signal | ~50% | Stronger continuation in the medium term |
| Historical Return 12 Months After Signal | ~300% | Maximum effect over a longer horizon |
| Historical Signal Failure Risk | -17.5% in one month in 2018 | The indicator does not guarantee a rise |
| Further Decline in 2018 | nearly -70% | Even a strong signal can fail |
Conclusion
Ethereum is currently showing several signs of recovery at once. First, the largest ETH holders are back in profit, and in the past that often preceded a meaningful price advance. Second, Glassnode data points to an attempt to move out of the undervalued zone and reclaim key recovery levels. Third, the technical structure also remains constructive as long as ETH holds above the broken ascending triangle line.
If the market confirms these signals, Ethereum could realistically move into the $2,625–2,750 range over the coming months, and if momentum continues, it may even target levels above $3,200 by September.
At the same time, risks remain. Historical signals are not perfect, and a failed move back above the realized price or a weak retest of the breakout may lead to a correction toward the $1,950–2,000 range or even lower.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or any other form of advice. Investing in or trading crypto assets involves the risk of financial loss.