Everywhere you look, there are scary headlines: “The biggest Bitcoin crash!”, “The start of a bear market!”. Hi, this is Aydar. If you focus only on the news flow, it is easy to feel like we are standing on the edge of a new catastrophe. At first glance, everything seems fine: the U.S. shutdown has formally ended, documents are signed, politicians keep promising economic growth, and meanwhile the market is calmly falling. Bitcoin has dropped below 95,000 for the first time since May, and the word “bear market” is getting louder.
Let’s break down step by step what is really happening and why the current situation looks more like a phase of uncertainty than the beginning of a global crash.
What Actually Crashed the Price
If we look formally, there is essentially one key reason right now – the U.S. labor market. It is the fresh employment data that destroyed the almost unanimous expectations of a Fed rate cut.
Just a month ago, most market participants were almost sure that the Fed would start cutting rates in December. Now this probability has turned into a coin flip – about 50/50.
For the crypto market, this is critically important. As long as it is unclear when the Fed will move to a looser policy, liquidity remains weak. And without an inflow of fresh liquidity, crypto simply does not grow.
Inflation really is slowing, but it is still above the target level. The labor market does not look weak enough for the Fed to urgently rush to “save the economy”. Right now it is easier for the regulator to wait and see than to risk a premature rate cut.
From this comes the main conclusion: the current drop is not the result of a catastrophe, but a consequence of uncertainty. Investors do not like acting in the dark, so they naturally move into more defensive assets – gold and other “safe havens”.
How the 40-Day Shutdown Distorted the Picture
Another point that many underestimate is the consequences of the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. It seriously disrupted the statistics. Macro reports are released with delays, some data is distorted, and for about a month and a half the market was trading almost blind.
When investors do not have clear numbers on GDP, inflation, employment and other key indicators, the logic is simple: reduce risk. Part of the capital naturally flows out of stocks and cryptocurrencies into instruments with less uncertainty. That is exactly what we are seeing now.
But there is another side: once the data flow normalizes and the numbers become clearer, capital will also start to come back. The market needs not only good news, but also transparency.
Closed Lesson on Crypto Arbitrage Without Cards
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While the lesson is still available, you can get access via the link below.
Is This Already the Start of a Bear Market?
The short answer: no. Here is why.
If the economy starts to slow down too sharply, the Fed simply will have no choice but to cut rates. As soon as they take this step, new liquidity will pour into the systеm, and cryptocurrencies usually react to this among the first.
Right now there is essentially one key factor preventing the Fed from cutting rates – inflation. But if fresh reports show a stable further decline in inflation, there will be almost no serious obstacles left to easing policy.
Separately, we should look at the behavior of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. At the moment, neither the dollar nor Treasuries is showing the classic behavior that we usually see during very aggressive Fed tightening. That is, there is no massive panic flight from risk assets, we are seeing more of an increase in caution.
Who Is Selling Now and Why This Is Not a Total Collapse
The topic of whales is back in the spotlight. People see large transfers to exchanges and immediately think: that is it, whales are exiting, the market is turning around.
However, analytics shows that the behavior of large players now is typical for the late phase of a bull cycle. This is not a mass exit, but normal profit-taking, which has happened in every previous cycle.
An interesting detail: more than half of current sellers are not old holders. These are relatively new participants who entered at higher prices and now cannot withstand the psychological pressure. They are closing positions at a loss, essentially creating a newbie capitulation. And it is exactly such capitulations that often form local market bottoms.
The 95,000 Level: Why This Is Not Just a Number
Now let’s move to the key zone. When I say that 65% of all coins were bought above 95,000, this is not a random figure. It reflects the psychology of the market.
1. Most participants bought higher than the current price.
If two thirds of the market bought bitcoin higher than it is trading now, the 95,000 level becomes a very strong support zone. These people do not want to lock in a loss. They will hold to the last, average down, buy more to see the price move above their entry. As a result, around 95,000 we get strong resistance to further decline: the market slows there, and a balance between buyers and sellers appears.
2. Holding the 95,000 level means the bull cycle continues.
In cryptocurrencies, price is largely built on confidence and expectations. If bitcoin stays above the zone where most participants are in the red, this is a signal that the market is still ready to move higher. At this moment, the inflow of new liquidity meets the reluctance of existing players to sell below their entry level. Such a balance often forms a local bottom.
3. What happens if 95,000 is broken.
If the price goes below the area where 65% of participants bought, market psychology changes. Those who have been sitting in a drawdown for a long time start to give up. Some lock in losses, others fear further decline. This creates additional selling pressure and accelerates the move down. But at the same time, it is important to understand that there is already serious demand below.
4. The next major demand zone is around 82,000.
Roughly in the 82,000 area lies the zone where, in the previous cycle, large funds and long-term holders actively entered. This is a real area where the market is ready to absorb large volumes. Therefore, when falling towards 82,000, the price is very likely to be bought up, rather than “fall into the abyss”.
5. Why this is not a repeat of 2022.
In 2022, the market was effectively falling into a void. Below the price there was no dense cluster of positions; liquidity was destroyed by bankruptcies, funds were leaving the market, and large players were selling almost non-stop. The logic looked like this: no buyers – price falls – even fewer buyers – the fall accelerates.
Now the picture is different. Below current prices there is a powerful layer of demand. Large funds are still in the market, ETFs continue to show inflows, and long-term holders are not selling off their positions en masse. Therefore, even if we see bitcoin in the 80–82 thousand zone, this is most likely a deep but normal correction within a bull cycle, and not a full market capitulation like in 2022.
6. A correction is not the same as a trend reversal.
Yes, a drop to 80,000 is unpleasant, but by itself it does not cancel the global uptrend. Every bull cycle has had similar episodes:
- 2017 – a drop of about 40% before a new growth impulse;
- 2020 – a drawdown of about 30% before the final bull wave;
- 2024 – a decline of 20–25% fits within the norm for a rising market.
What to Do Right Now
Futures, ETFs and whale activity are secondary. The main factor is liquidity.
In the coming weeks, the U.S. is preparing to inject about 300 billion dollars into the market. This is not full-scale quantitative easing, but rather a “light” version, yet even such volumes are enough to support demand for risk assets. If this scenario plays out, December may become a turning point.
After that, everything depends on your strategy:
- If you have a long-term approach, the market will eventually do most of the work for you. Corrections are a normal