In analytical reviews and market discussions, a wide variety of observations and interpretations of Bitcoin’s price dynamics regularly appear. There is no definitive answer as to how accurate they are. It is important to understand that any conclusions mentioned below should not be viewed as proven cause-and-effect relationships, investment advice, or final value judgments. This material is an overview of existing opinions and popular interpretations, not a call to action.
What Influences Bitcoin’s Price Movements?
Halving as a “Second-Tier” Factor
Over the past years, the cryptocurrency market has changed significantly and has largely outgrown the traditional models that were previously used to explain its behavior. More and more often, one hears the opinion that halving no longer has a dominant impact on Bitcoin’s price and that BTC dynamics increasingly depend on macroeconomics and politics.
Supporters of this view believe that as the market grows, the impact of emission reduction naturally weakens. As arguments, they cite:
- the substantial growth of Bitcoin’s market capitalization and of the entire crypto market;
- the emergence and development of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to BTC;
- the active entry of institutional investors and large financial organizations into the market.
According to this approach, halving remains an important element of Bitcoin’s economic model but is gradually shifting to a “second-tier” role compared to global financial and political factors.
The Role of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics
According to market participants, monetary easing and reductions in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate are usually perceived as factors that support economic activity. Cheaper credit encourages companies and consumers to take on new projects and obligations. Against this backdrop, the returns on bank deposits may decline, and some investors begin to look at higher-yield — and therefore higher-risk — instruments, including crypto assets and, in particular, Bitcoin.
As an example, analysts often refer to a situation in 2025, when, after another Fed decision to cut the key rate, Bitcoin’s price, according to market data, rose by several percent at once — roughly from $106 400 to $109 400. This episode is viewed as an illustration that a shift toward a looser monetary policy can be accompanied by growing interest in BTC among some investors.
Observers also frequently mention the example of 2022. At that time, monetary tightening and rate hikes, in the opinion of a number of experts, coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s price of about 60%. This sequence of events is used as an argument that tighter monetary policy increases demand for more stable and conservative financial products, while crypto assets temporarily lose appeal.
At the same time, it is emphasized that this is an observed correlation rather than a proven causal link between the Fed’s actions and Bitcoin’s price. Still, such examples are actively discussed in the professional community.
Political Statements as a Driver of Bitcoin’s Price
Some analytical reports separately examine the impact of politicians’ public statements on the price dynamics of crypto assets. Most often, these discussions reference the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump.
For instance, after D. Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, Bitcoin, according to market data, rose to around $70 000. The next notable surge followed a statement about plans to form a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve: overnight, Bitcoin jumped from roughly $80 000 to $94 000, but then rather quickly returned to its previous levels. On the one hand, this underscored the speculative nature of the move; on the other, it showed that Trump’s statements can trigger a reaction in the leading cryptocurrency.
Another illustrative case is Trump’s announcement of a dividend program for U.S. citizens scheduled for November 2025. Under the outlined initiative, each resident is to receive $2 000 funded by revenues from import tariffs. Financial markets reacted almost instantly: Bitcoin’s price climbed to about $106 000.
Experts estimate the total size of the program at roughly $440 billion. It is assumed that such large-scale payouts could partially translate into additional demand for BTC if a portion of recipients decide to invest this money in Bitcoin.
Some market participants draw parallels with 2020, when the U.S. government allocated around $2 trillion to support the economy. According to historical data, after this, Bitcoin’s price rose by more than 1 000% — from approximately $6 000 to $69 000. This comparison is used as an argument that massive stimulus programs accompanied by broad liquidity injections into the population can indirectly support demand for cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity and Capital Flows as Factors Affecting Bitcoin’s Price
Another important factor highlighted by analysts is liquidity and how capital flows move through the systеm. Inflows and outflows of funds often set the overall backdrop for price movements. During periods of high volatility caused by economic or political uncertainty, many investors try to reduce risk by shifting funds into more stable instruments — primarily stablecoins.
The value of stablecoins is usually pegged to fiat exchange rates or to the yield on government bonds, which makes them less sensitive to sharp market swings. This makes them a convenient “safe harbor” for participants who are temporarily reducing risk.
Experts studying on-chain flows look at a wide range of indicators. Among them:
- large movements of Bitcoin between wallets of major holders (so-called whales);
- transfers of BTC to exchanges, which are often interpreted as preparation for selling or increased trading activity;
- changes in the volume of stablecoins held on exchange balances.
Based on such data, analysts try to gauge market sentiment. For example, if large players are moving Bitcoin to exchanges while stablecoins are flowing off exchanges to external wallets, some observers view this combination of signals as a possible indication of cooling risk appetite and an elevated risk of BTC price decline.
Similar approaches are applied to Bitcoin-based instruments, particularly funds and ETFs. When the market is dominated by positive sentiment and investor interest is strong, capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs usually increase. This is seen as an additional bullish factor and an indicator of institutional confidence in Bitcoin.
Combined Impact of Multiple Factors on Bitcoin’s Price
When political events overlap with economic ones, Bitcoin’s reaction, according to analysts, can be complex and ambiguous. A commonly cited example is the U.S. government shutdown in the fall of 2025.
During that period, amid heightened uncertainty, Bitcoin’s price declined. For the first time in six years, such a pronounced negative dynamic was recorded: in October, the price fell from about $125 000 to $107 000, that is roughly a 15% drop. In November, the downward trend continued, and BTC briefly dipped below the $100 000 mark.
However, once more optimistic signals emerged — including news of the shutdown’s end and discussions of possible financial support measures for U.S. households — Bitcoin’s price returned to growth.
Some experts see this episode as a clear demonstration that investor expectations and political decisions, superimposed on the macroeconomic backdrop, continue to play a significant role in BTC price dynamics. At the same time, they emphasize that these examples should not be interpreted as strict proof of causal relationships. The Bitcoin market remains a complex systеm influenced by many factors simultaneously, and any observed patterns should be interpreted in this broader context.